Will Saleh Return?

Protesters celebrate President Saleh's temporary ouster (from bbc.co,uk).

On Sunday, anti-government protesters in Yemen gathered to celebrate President Saleh’s temporary departure. Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has ruled the country for 33 years, was recently wounded during an attack on the presidential compound that killed at a least seven and wounded more. Saleh flew to Saudi Arabia this weekend to seek medical attention. Vice President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi has taken over responsibilities in the interim.

Protesters have already echoed the chant popular in the Egyptian revolution, “The people, at last, defeated the regime,” but with Saleh vowing to return in a few days, are they jumping the gun?

Saudi Arabia has helped to broker a cease-fire agreement and Saudi officials are encouraging Saleh to step down for the sake of regional stability.

Yemen expert, Gregor Johnsen told Reuters:

“If Saleh remains out of the country and if his sons and nephews don’t begin instigating or taking provocative action, Yemen can avoid all-out war. At the same time, we have come dangerously close in the last couple of weeks to what could easily be classified as a civil war, so it’s too early to say. It could go either way.”

Furthermore, as other revolutions have shown, removing an unpopular leader is not the end of the road to reform. The process of reconciliation and rebuilding is often more difficult. As in Egypt, there is no one leader of the protests but unlike Egypt, there is greater dissent about what a post-Saleh country would look like. Saleh’s departure could easily leave a power vacuum. “There is no single institution or individual in Yemen who is capable of exerting control,” says Yemen expert Khaled Fattah. Saleh’s departure will also not fix many of the underlying issues (especially economic) that fuel anger and discontent.

Read the rest of Reuters’ analysis here.

Yemenis celebrate Saleh’s departure in Sanaa, but Yemen’s future remains uncertain.